Preview: Melbourne v Cairns (Round 12)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 23 December, 2022

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

Cairns 97 (Kuol 18, Pinder 18, Hogg 17) d Melbourne 72 (Humphries 17, Goulding 12, Maluach 10) – Round 6, Cairns Convention Centre

After scores were level late in the second stanza, Cairns produced a destructive 30-10 third term to blow the game open. The Taipans had six players in double-figures and scored 82 points after quarter-time, draining 14/29 from long range in the final 30 minutes as they exposed some lax United defensive transition. Isaac Humphries was tough inside for Melbourne with 17 points at 80 per cent, but didn’t get enough help or enough of the ball.

What happened last game?

Home wasn’t such a happy place for the Taipans on Tuesday, outworked and outplayed by a Perth team now just one game behind them on the NBL ladder. TaShawn Thomas exposed Cairns’ interior defence, while there were also cracks in their d-trans. Melbourne didn’t have things all their own way against Illawarra, but produced a stellar 24-9 game-ending run to seal it, Chris Goulding capping his 400^th game with 12 points in the final seven minutes.

What’s working?

Smarts on Keanu – TaShawn Thomas earned plaudits for his defensive effort on Pinder, fighting hard over screens to deny him touches and using his feet and length to make KP shoot contested shots at the rim. It’s a blueprint for the length of Marcus Lee. Just as important were his teammates, who bumped screeners and applied opportunistic double-teams from the baseline side to keep Pinder guessing, setting a team example for Melbourne to follow. What adjustments can the Snakes make in the meantime?

Hunting CG’s triples – Four games ago, Dean Vickerman told Chris Goulding he wanted him heaving 10-plus three-pointers per night. He didn’t have to ask twice, CG going 18/46 since and averaging 20.3ppg. Bubbles floating up triples works well for Melbourne, who are 6-1 when he takes 10 or more, with the only loss being the game they threw away in Perth. Against Cairns, he’s taken a total of 12 triples in two losses and averaged just 14ppg.

What needs stopping?

Possession pantsing – Sure, Melbourne are 3-1 in the past two rounds, but they were -19 in possessions against Illawarra and the Phoenix last round, their +10 on turnovers a concern. Last time against Cairns they had 20 cough-ups to nine and 13 o-boards to 17, taking six less field goals and 12 less free throws as a result. The Taipans were embarrassed by Perth in the possession game, throwing it away 17 times to nine, and they need their D creating easy scores against a United team who allowed just 76.5ppg at 35 per cent in Round 11.

Putting Cairns on the line – United were -28 on free-throw attempts last round, and are a league-worst -114 across the season. They were -17 in two losses to Cairns with Keanu Pinder taking 15 himself. The Taipans were -17 against Perth and are -21 across six losses in NBL23, compared to +80 in 10 triumphs, so while Dean Vickerman’s men have been making opponents earn it at the foul line rather than give up open threes or easy deuces, keeping Cairns off the stripe prevents Bul Kuol and Co setting up their full-court defence.

Who’s matching up?

Rayjon Tucker v Tahjere McCall – This is power athlete against slippery athlete, but both do their best work in the open court and it’s sure going to be entertaining. Tucker has averaged 19.8ppg, 9rpg and 2.4apg in his past nine games, while McCall has produced 19.8ppg, 6.2rpg, 4apg, 2.3 o-boards and 1.2 steals in his past six. Can Tucker keep Tahj off the glass and negate his high-post moves, and can McCall contest Rayjon at the rim in transition?

Mason Peatling v DJ Hogg – With Sam Waardenburg back, Dave Barlow out and Dave Okwera battling an ankle complaint, Peatling’s performance becomes crucial for Melbourne. He's playing at a high level right now, grabbing 22 boards in his past 55 minutes, hitting his past three triples and pouring in 19 points at 89 per cent against the Hawks. He’ll likely start on Hogg, who torched Perth for 24 points at 50 per cent, eight rebounds and three dimes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Team work ? Dream work ?<br><br>Watch LIVE on ESPN ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/YVaHSnRgL6">pic.twitter.com/YVaHSnRgL6</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1605139727425757184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Last time Melbourne played the Taipans, things got really ugly.

After scores were level just 125 seconds before interval, United unravelled and were outscored 38-10 over the next 12 minutes.

While that seems extraordinary, it was actually run-of-the-mill for Melbourne early in NBL23.

Across a series of horror droughts in the opening six rounds, they were outscored 208-37 in 69 minutes of basketball, scoring at a rate of 21.4 points per 40 minutes when things dried up.

In two losses to Cairns, they were humbled 60-10 in 17 minutes of play, going +21 over the other 63 minutes but the damage had been done.

Heading into the final game of this season series on Friday night, coach Dean Vickerman is liking the improved mental toughness of his team when things go against them.

They were on the brink of collapsing in the fourth quarter against Illawarra, but Chris Goulding and Co steadied the ship and won going away.

“That 13-0 run could have turned into a 17 or 18-0 run, but the mistakes that we've made recently and the runs other people have gone on in this last little period, the Perth game, we've just been far more composed and haven't lost our brains through some of those moments,” Vickerman said.

“The coaches commented to me, ‘Wow, CG was great in that time-out, really led, (saying) this is how we’re going to come back’, and when we’re all on that page to say whatever hits we take we've got to find a way out of it.”

Goulding has been the undisputed leader Melbourne’s recent run of three Ws from four games, but he gives credit to the return of Shea Ili and Mason Peatling.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">He makes it look so easy ?‍?<br><br>9-0 run. 6:30 left to play<br><br>?: 10 Peach or ESPN via Foxtel or Kayo <a href="https://t.co/PvxMGEWJsQ">pic.twitter.com/PvxMGEWJsQ</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1604375712843956229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“You add in a little bit more familiarity in players, I've played with Shea for a long time, I've played with Mase for a long time, there’s just certain things you know you can get,” he said.

“The last little bit we've had an intent to move the ball well, hunt good shots, put our feet in the paint, if it’s there take it, (if it’s not) move it on.

“We want to whip the ball around, shoot some good threes. Our numbers are not where we said it may be in regards to the three makes, but just the intent to hunt them and get our feet in the paint is opening up some good things.”

One person opening things up is Rayjon Tucker, whose form now resembles the superstar he promised to be pre-season, with Peatling’s rebounding and Ili’s speed helping set him free in the open court more often.

“The pace that he can play at, he has a gravity about him when he takes off downhill, especially in transition, where we can try and get a lot of good looks,” Goulding said.

“He takes off and he gets down into the paint and he’s always looking, so that’s been really positive from him in the last few games, when he plays at speed it creates a lot of opportunities for us.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">CG finds MP for the SLAM <br><br>?: 10 Peach or ESPN <a href="https://t.co/V5kedhpmsL">pic.twitter.com/V5kedhpmsL</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1604354495919443968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The challenge for Melbourne is stopping the Taipans speed under the stars in Friday’s open air game.

Cairns’ keys are getting out in transition, scoring heavily from the arc and getting to the foul line, and interestingly coach Vickerman feels like the Hawks were good preparation for this.

“We had a theory tonight their three-ball is so important to them and we ran them off,” Vickerman said.

“We've been one of the best teams in the league at running teams off the three-point line, but that forces some people downhill and how well we can navigate that next part and force them into mid-range jumpers, how can we wall up and how can we help each other.

“That’s an area we've still got to get better at, their ability to get 33 free throws, if we fix that part and hold teams under 40 per cent from the field we’ll be in a good space.”

The Taipans have had anything but good preparation for another high-pressure, high-speed affair, and Perth ran their tiring legs off the floor on Tuesday.

“The road caught up a little bit, this is our fourth game now, we've got another one in Melbourne which will finish out a five-game stretch in two weeks,” coach Adam Forde said.

“We look forward to getting Sam (Waardenburg) back in the line-up and that helps with some big minutes from a five-man.”

Forde will be freshening his men up in the three-day break, knowing their transition defence and lack of ability to get to the foul line cost them dearly against the Cats, and will do likewise against an in-form Melbourne.

“It was only South East and Sydney that are ahead of us on free-throw attempts, and you saw the game the other night where there were more free-throw attempts than anything else. I don’t think it’s changed because Perth were able to get to the line 26 times, so we’ll look to see what the subtle differences were from our end so we can get back to the stripe like we deserve,” Forde said.

“I think the offensive side of things was ok, we scored 83 points, you add in the extra 15 free-throw attempts we usually get, offence is ok, but we gave up 105 points in a 40-minute game, that’s really where the game was lost for us.”