Preview: Melbourne v Adelaide (Round 7)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 17 November, 2022
Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

Melbourne 101 (Lual-Acuil 15, Newley 15, White 12) d Adelaide 74 (Johnson 18, Sotto 12, Dufelmeier 11) – Round 16, NBL22 at John Cain Arena

The 36ers skipped away early in this Round 16 clash, but once their momentum faded it was a Melbourne procession, winning points in the paint 52-36 while dropping 13 long bombs at 40 per cent, Brad Newley the unlikely leader from the arc with 3/5 en route to 15 points, while Jo Lual-Acuil and Ariel Hukporti combined for 26 point inside the paint.

What happened last game?

United were unstoppable inside against the Phoenix last round, their starters combining for a staggering 19/28 two-pointers as they ran up 110 points, their biggest score since November 2019  when they also scored 110 in the Throwdown. Adelaide dominated the paint against Perth, outscoring their visitors 52-30 around the rim, but paid the price for a sleepy start and some wayward perimeter shooting to fall by five and drop to 3-4.

What’s working?

Giving Robo his cop – Franks is a scoring machine, and he’s produced 49 points at 65 per cent in the past two games, taking 17 shots per night after averaging 11.6 FGA in his opening five contests as a 36er. Considering the issues Melbourne had defending Keanu Pinder and Mitch Creek without giving up easy baskets to others in the past two games, Adelaide need to get their in-form four-man good looks early and often.

Shooting Bubbles – Speaking of getting stars shots, Goulding was finally the main target of Melbourne’s early-game offence in Round 6, and he finished with 30 points on 17 field-goal attempts. He went 7/12 from range, and has now landed 15/33 treys in his past four games. He also averaged 4.5 assists in that quartet of clashes, with Melbourne winning three, their offence more potent with CG landing from deep and punishing overplays via the pass.

What needs stopping?

Stop the slop – Adelaide’s opening against Perth was as sloppy as you’ll see in professional hoops, burping up six turnovers in eight minutes and the 'Cats scoring 11 points from those cough-ups to race 13 points ahead. The 36ers are -49 on points from turnovers in their four losses, compared to +5 in three wins, and while Craig Randall’s 3.8 per game are now gone, big men Daniel Johnson and Franks can’t continue coughing up five between them.

Isaac Humphries – Dean Vickerman says when his team finds Humphries, good things happen, and that was certainly the case in the Throwdown. Ice had 20 points at 70 per cent, with all of his looks coming from within five feet. All four of Chris Goulding’s dimes were to his big man, and when CG is hitting shots opposition defences have a very tough choice between the screen defender challenging the shot or shutting down the rolling Humphries.

Who’s matching up?

Chris Goulding v Sunday Dech – Of course, the solution to that issue is having a defender who can stay attached to Goulding, and few do that better than Dech. Last season, Goulding shot a wayward 10/43 against the 36ers, including 2/19 from distance in their final two meetings. Will CJ Bruton insert Dech into the starting five to apply the screws from tip-off?

Daniel Johnson v Isaac Humphries – In Adelaide wins, DJ is averaging 18.3ppg on 10.7 shot attempts and 50 per cent shooting from deep. In defeat, those numbers shrink to 6.5ppg on 7.3 attempts and 33 per cent at the arc. It’s no secret getting Johnson good open looks is the key breaking half-court scoring droughts, while it’s also no secret opposition teams love testing his ability to defend the ball-screen, and Humphries will be no exception.

Xavier Rathan-Mayes v Antonius Cleveland – In losses this season, XRM averages 11ppg at 39 per cent and 2.8apg, compared to 24ppg at 54 per cent and 5.8apg in victories. It’s fair to say slowing down Melbourne’s floor general is a fairly important task, and what better man for the job than his former Hawks teammate and reigning Damian Martin Trophy winner Cleveland? Buckle up for a classic battle of athleticism versus canny ball-screen execution.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Still fightin&#39;.<br><br>? - ESPN + Kayo Sports <a href="https://t.co/CI14IgYvBH">pic.twitter.com/CI14IgYvBH</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1588844837654401024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 5, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

When teams make in-season changes, the focus is usually on who is coming in, or who has been let go.

In Melbourne’s case, the release of Jordan Caroline in favour of the bigger, longer more athletic Marcus Lee is a straight-forward swap to better fill the hole left by Ariel Hukporti. Lee is set to play in the Throwdown on Saturday night. 

But perhaps the biggest talking point about that transaction is the unspoken faith coach Dean Vickerman and Co now have in NBL22 development player David Okwera.

“He’s smart, he knows how to play… he’s given us a great switch-up and great minutes,” Chris Goulding said.

“I think the year he had under Barlow in the NBL1 just gave him confidence to play in that system and translate that into our team.”

‘D-Sav’ has been shooting the ball at 56 per cent over his past five games, including four as a starter, and it was perhaps his 13-point, five-rebound performance against the Phoenix, where he went 2/3 from range, that convinced United they could go with a pure five-man import replacement, rather than a hybrid.

“When he plays with that confidence and knows when he’s going to get a certain amount of minutes, or that there’s a big responsibility thrown upon him, he’s been great,” Goulding said.

“He shoots the ball really well, teams are obviously testing that and that’s impressive to have that confidence in your shot when teams are disrespecting you.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DSav is COOKIN&#39; in Q3 ?‍?<br><br>He has 13 points<br><br>Watch: ESPN2 via Kayo Sports or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/PLNpiYzGEW">pic.twitter.com/PLNpiYzGEW</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1589145466478161921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 6, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Perhaps where to biggest vote of confidence in Okwera is at the defensive end, however. United were statistically the NBL’s best defensive team last season, but sit just sixth so far in NBL23.

Okwera’s increased role means he is on the frontline of Melbourne’s ball-screen defence, and it’s a challenge he’s relishing with his length and athleticism.

“Our main focus is we want to be one of the best defensive teams in the league,” he said.

“Our sole focus is on that. Coming out and doing well sets the standard for us. We know we’re capable of doing that, we should be doing that all season.

“It’s still early in the season and we’re still learning how to gel together. I think we’ve all seen flashes of how good we can be and I think against South East (Melbourne) we showed that.”

Of course, Melbourne isn’t the only team to make a move over the FIBA break, Adelaide sensationally releasing leading scorer Craig Randall.

“I hate it, you never want to see anybody lose their job,” forward Antonius Cleveland said.

“To help us move forward and to help the team, I am all for it. An unfortunate situation but it is time to put our focus on the team and try to get better.”

That change will have a big impact on Okwera’s defensive assignment, especially with Shea Ili once again sidelined, lessening Melbourne’s ball pressure.

With Randall handling the ball a lot, the ability of opposition bigs to challenge his pull-up coming off screens was vital, something that suited the rangy Okwera.

However, Randall’s ball dominance at times left creative floor general Mitch McCarron obsolete, limiting his ability to explore the defence and find cutters and shooters.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The ? ???? ? of the no-look pass notches his 200th NBL appearance this weekend ?<br><br>From Cairns ? Melbourne ? Adelaide, Mitch McCarron has been dropping dimes since day dot ? <a href="https://t.co/k9VGtrgdb1">pic.twitter.com/k9VGtrgdb1</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1592774474386079747?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It’s no coincidence that Robert Franks has taken 34 shots the past two games with Randall injured and then in a bench role, with Money Making Mitch free to make others rich.

“Mitch is that point guard you love to play with, he wants to pass, and he wants to make his teammates look good,” Franks said.

“That’s the benefit of having Mitch out there, he is going to look for you, he is very selfless, one of the most selfless teammates I’ve had, you can’t take a guy like Mitch for granted, you’ve really got to appreciate what he brings to the table.

“Mitch is Mitch, he’s going to run this team and do everything he needs to do on a game-to-game day basis, I expect Mitch to do everything for us at the point guard position.”

Yet for Adelaide, who rank dead last on defence, getting their season back on track is about creating a disruptive identity at the defensive end to create opportunities for McCarron, Franks, Cleveland and Co in the open court.

That’s music to Cleveland’s ears, who showed in the Gong he thrives in that environment, and he has his eagle eyes on Melbourne’s shooting backcourt stars.

“We need to execute the game plan and establish an identity going forward and be consistent with that,” AC said.

“Melbourne’s a balanced team, Xavier Rathan-Mayes is having a great year, we know about Chris Goulding.”