Preview: Illawarra vs Perth - Round 20, NBL24

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Can the Wildcats prevent a regular season sweep against Illawarra and pile the pressure onto Justin Tatum's side?

Thursday, February 15 at 7:30pm AEDT | WIN Entertainment Centre

Watch: Live on ESPN via Kayo - International viewership details
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A win for the Hawks against the Wildcats will almost certainly guarantee their return to post-season basketball. Illawarra sits fourth on the ladder with two games to play in the final round of the season.

Derek Rucker has labelled the Hawks’ ability to win on the road as a potential point of difference in any Finals run, should they earn their position in the post-season.

Gary Clark has said the realisation that this season could be a turning point for a lot of the Hawks’ careers was a catalyst for the immense turnaround in form this season.

Perth coach John Rillie said he would be surprised if Bryce Cotton was not named the NBL MVP this season.

His comments came after he said the Wildcats would not change their offensive strategy against the Hawks, after Cotton was kept quiet in the team's two losses this season.

Jesse Wagstaff said he wasn’t expecting much strategic or rotational change in Perth’s game plan ahead of Round 20.

Illawarra
106-95 win over Sydney
85-88 loss to New Zealand
89-76 win over Brisbane

Perth
117-88 win over Cairns
78-89 loss to New Zealand
103-91 win over South East Melbourne

Gary Clark
Illawarra’s Round 19 defeat to New Zealand could have spelled catastrophe for the Hawks. Instead, they rallied behind another brilliant Gary Clark performance against the Sydney Kings to steal victory from their state rivals and put themselves in the driver’s seat for Finals qualification.

When Clark spoke post-game he seemed almost indifferent towards the fact Illawarra had all but locked in a Finals spot, and one win from two Round 20 fixtures would be enough to see them make the post-season. That’s because Finals is not the goal – a championship is.

The Hawks aren’t there to take part, they’re there to take over, and if Illawarra are to continue their fairytale run up the standings and into the post-season, it will almost certainly be Clark leading the charge on the court.

“There’s no relief to be in, we’re still trying to win games and get statement wins. Just to get in is, what, to say we made it in? We’re still trying to win this thing out and get the momentum we need in the post-season to allow a lot of noise. Being in is kind of irrelevant, it’s about building these wins to get going post-season.” – Gary Clark following the win over Sydney.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nice, Gary ?<br><br>Is Gary Clark in your All-NBL First Team? ?<br><br>Catch Gary Clark and the <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@illawarrahawks</a> in action tonight at 5:30pm AEDT, live on ESPN via Kayo ? <a href="https://t.co/IvqOGbrTwO">pic.twitter.com/IvqOGbrTwO</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1755772029679423899?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Bryce Cotton
Last time the Hawks and Wildcats faced off, Illawarra pushed its defensive boundaries and ensured star Wildcat Bryce Cotton could not get off the chain offensively.

The physical double-teams that went to Cotton on almost every possession restricted the MVP-elect’s ability to have any impact on proceedings, and the Hawks registered their second win over Perth of NBL24.

Illawarra’s handling of Cotton sparked heated debates as to whether the blueprint for stopping the three-time MVP had finally been found, and if he needed more protection from the referees. In true Bryce fashion though, he rose above the discussion and bounced back with a brilliant performance against Cairns.

John Rillie claimed the Taipans’ and Hawks’ off-ball defensive strategies are comparable, so it remains to be seen just how the Hawks handle Cotton, and how Cotton responds to the Hawks – because he rarely has three bad games – by his lofty standards, of course – against the same opposition in one season.

“The gravity and purpose Bryce plays with, our other players really need to capitalise on that and I thought we saw that in the fourth quarter the other night against Cairns. There are some similarities in some ways Cairns defends off the ball and the attention they give Bryce, so getting ourselves in those situations more often I think will be advantageous for us ... they’ve probably exposed us a little bit in the way they defend us and it’s going to be a great challenge to go on the road and figure out a way to defeat them.” – John Rillie mid-week.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">With his four assists tonight, Bryce Cotton has moved to no.5 on the Perth Wildcats all time assists leaderboard!<br><br>Congratulations, Bryce. ? <a href="https://t.co/FelUNndZt3">pic.twitter.com/FelUNndZt3</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1756275836817424510?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Lachlan Olbrich vs Alexandre Sarr
Two of the most exciting young bigs in the competition are set to do battle from the bench when the Hawks face the Wildcats, however their impending battle represents the wider war between the two team’s second-units.

Lachlan Olbrich has found his minutes fluctuating in recent weeks, but whether he played three minutes or 20, you know he’s going to bring the effort and crash the glass for every single rebound, without fail. It’s rare to see a big be that energy sparkplug for a side, but Olbrich has already proven himself to be a momentum-changing bundle of guts and determination.

Alexandre Sarr, on the other hand, will almost certainly be used for consistent bursts for Perth. He earned his maiden Chemist Warehouse Fans MVP nomination for his performance against Cairns in Round 19, and he’s been ramping up ever since his return from injury in Round 17.

The battle of the bigs is a mouthwatering prospect in this game. Sam Froling and Gary Clark will take to the floor against Keanu Pinder and Kristian Doolittle, but both Olbrich and Sarr have proven themselves to be match-winners and game-changers on a consistent basis. For Sarr it was as recently as last game, for Olbrich, just look at Illawarra’s wins over New Zealand and Perth in Round 17.

Perth has won each of its last five away games, and has won four of its last five away games against Illawarra. The only home win the Hawks have registered over the Wildcats in that stretch came in Round 10 this season, when 21 points from Sam Froling led the Hawks to an 18-point win.

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Sam Froling.