Preview: Cairns v Sydney (Playoffs Game 2)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 17 February, 2023
Where: Cairns Convention Centre
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won last time?

Sydney 95 (Cooks 27, Walton 21, Soares 14) d Cairns 87 (Hogg 24, Antonio 20, Scott 13) – Game 1 at Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

Cairns looked on the verge of one of the great NBL Finals upsets when they poured on 59 first-half points on Wednesday despite being without stars Tahjere McCall and Keanu Pinder. Jonah Antonio was the unexpected star of the show with an outrageous perimeter display, while Shannon Scott quietly had a huge impact - the Snakes were -13 in the 6:16 he rested.

Sydney got to work in the second half, however, and locked the Taipans down physically to spark their own running game and grab a double-figure lead behind Xavier Cooks' MVP-like performance. Cairns didn’t throw in the towel and closed to within four mid-way through the final term, only for Sydney to cap a night of paint dominance with a string of key plays inside.

What’s working?

Full-court rim raids – Cooks, Justin Simon and Kouat Noi had 20 defensive boards and two steals between them, which were converted into 25 points at 56 per cent from the field, including 11 points on 5/6 shooting in their decisive 27-10 third-quarter demolition. From these plays the Kings created 17 scoring chances in the first 12 seconds of the shot clock - a key part of their tempo control and their 58-26 advantage from points in the paint.

Five-out offence – Sydney had no answers for the Taipans’ spread floor in the opening half on Wednesday as the visitors knocked down 10/21 from outside and 7/8 in the paint. In the final 11 minutes of the half they scored 42 points on 13/19 from the field with assists on nine of those baskets. Antonio hit 5/6 from deep as the Kings failed to make quick adjustments to their scout and ended up defending neither the arc nor the rim.  

What needs stopping?

Five-out offence – Once Chase Buford did adjust and the Kings climbed into the ball and chased over the top of screens, the Snakes desperately missed the slashing athleticism of McCall and Pinder. While that strategy opened up opportunities for pick-and-pops and guard penetration, Cairns’ issue was frontcourt shooters Hogg, Sam Waardenburg and Majok Deng shot just 2/13 from outside, while their guards hit a combined 4/11 inside the arc.

Xavier Cooks – With Game 1 seeing a far stricter interpretation on flopping and far greater latitude for offensive players to initiate contact to the chest than the rest of the season, Cooks became unstoppable. He played with an impressive mix of physicality and poise to finish with 27 points at 57 per cent. The Snakes only forced Sydney into 20 three-point attempts, so will they build more of a wall on Friday? And will Cooks again be allowed to play bully ball?

Who’s missing key men?
Sydney are expected to field the same line-up as Game 1, while Cairns are awaiting a fitness test for Tahjere McCall.

Who’s matching up?

Bul Kuol v Derrick Walton – Kuol had been superb on Walton in the regular season, but the NBL All-First Team point guard made a huge statement in Game 1 with 21 points at 75 per cent, including a perfect 5/5 at the rim and 3/4 from midrange as he exploited Bul and company's tendency to gap him with length. Walton also had 11 points and all five of his assists in the back-half of Sydney’s possessions as he made important plays against Cairns’ set defence.

Cairns v Justin Simon – When Simon hits at least one triple Sydney are 9-2, compared to 11-7 on his barren nights. His ability to move off the ball rather than just spot up is also important - the Kings are  7-1 when he earns more than two free throws. He achieved both marks in Game 1 as the Snakes lost track of him numerous times, and Simon +10 for the game after being -26 in three regular season meetings shooting 0/4 from deep and 2/4 from the stripe.

DJ Hogg v Sydney – Cooks led the defensive effort that restricted Hogg to 1/7 from outside, but the Taipans star still managed 24 points on 7/12 inside and 7/8 at the foul line. The Kings were happy to switch screens to restrict DJ’s passing game, while Hogg was happy to hunt Tim Soares and go one-on-one with him. Perhaps a key for the Snakes is to put Hogg in more screening action with guards close to the basket to look for some post mismatches?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Who can stop DJ Hogg right now? ?<br><br>Watch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> Live &amp; free on ESPN via Kayo Freebies ? <a href="https://t.co/wH6yHR8ZOI">pic.twitter.com/wH6yHR8ZOI</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1625780446037676032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Apart from moving within one game of return to the NBL championship series, there was something about Wednesday’s win over Cairns that would have delighted the Kings.

That was the fact they beat a good team in a close game. In the regular season, Sydney were just 4-8 in single-figure games against the other seven finals contenders and had lost five of their past six.

In those five defeats they were outscored 144-91 in the final quarter, their defence simply incapable of getting stops with the game on the line and their offence stuttering in the half-court.

So when Cairns unleashed a 9-2 run in the fourth quarter of Game 1 to pull within a basket, there would have been some nervous moments for the home side.

But the Kings responded, and they did it their way, scoring their final 14 points in the paint or from the free-throw line as they exploited the Pinder-less interior.

“The thing that encourages me – 58-26 points in the paint,” coach Chase Buford said.

“That’s the way we want to win games. We give up threes but we dominate at the rim, and I think we can dominate everybody at the rim especially with their outs.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ANOTHER ONE ??<br><br>Watch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> Live &amp; free on ESPN via Kayo Freebies <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/t0lwEdJ1Al">pic.twitter.com/t0lwEdJ1Al</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1625807055515795457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They also sealed the deal with defence. Apart from that brief nine-point spurt in the middle stages of the fourth, Sydney held the Taipans to just 19 points in 17 second-half minutes.

It was a remarkable turnaround after giving up 59 points in the opening 20 minutes.

“Everyone understood the message at half-time and what we need to do to correct it,” Buford said.

“I thought we did a really good job in the second half on Waardenburg, I think he was a key for us in the way we wanted to guard him, and in the second half we did a much better job.

“DJ Hogg took seven attempts from three – which is probably a little bit too much – but he only makes one. I thought we had a lot of really good contests on him and not allowing him to make a bunch of triples is important.

“Shannon Scott hits two and Antonio hits six and none of their other shooters hit more than one.”

When the Kings have tried to mix up their coverages this season to lock down dangerous shooters – usually against Cairns, South East Melbourne or Perth – they’ve often ended up leaking cricket scores as their fundamentals fall away.

“They made a couple of threes to end the first and then they make seven in the second quarter,” Buford said.

“We were trying to be in some different coverages where we needed to communicate and switch and things, and the communication and execution of that in the first half was really poor at times.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">SAM IS AIRBOURNE ??<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/SamWaardenburg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SamWaardenburg</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/RbXTvYyixU">pic.twitter.com/RbXTvYyixU</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1625778311837396992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They figured out how to cover the arc without gifting lay-ups with a more aggressive approach after intermission, allowing just 2/14 from deep after a 10/21 opening half.

“We just let Antonio go nuts. He made shots, credit to him, but we could have guarded him a whole lot better than we did,” Buford said.

“We locked in on a couple of those things in the second half and it was a total energy shift. It was these coming out and playing with a different mindset in the second half of crawling into people, all the stuff works better the more into the ball we are.”

Of course, crawling into the ball becomes more difficult if Tahj McCall is on the floor ready to attack the rim, and Snakes fans will be hoping his cleared for Friday’s home final.

“That third quarter needed someone like him to get on the rim,” coach Adam Forde said.

“We didn’t capitalise on getting to the bonus. The cool thing with Tahj is you can give him the ball and he gets to the foul line.”

Forde has made it clear he won’t play his star swingman if his shoulder isn’t good to go, but he feels even without McCall the Snakes can be much better in that area.

“We’ll see in the next day. If not, it’s that message (to everyone else) that you don’t have to live by the three,” he said.

“I know we’re down some guys who like to get on the rim, but the ones who are available can as well.”

Then there’s the challenge of overcoming the Kings’ potent rim attacks, led by the almost unstoppable Xavier Cooks.

“We’ll be ready, it’s the only thing you can do, step on the court and come to play, backs against the wall again. We do have to play better, especially all 40 minutes, but confident still,” DJ Hogg said.

“The thing with (Cooks) is you know he’s going to the rim, it’s whether you can make it tough for him to get there.

“I understand tonight I didn’t do a good job when I was matched up on him, but I've got another game on Friday to do better.

“It’s more than just a one-man job though with him, that’s why he’s MVP.”