Preview: Cairns v New Zealand (Round 8)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 25 November, 2022
Where: Cairns Convention Centre
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

New Zealand 68 (Brown 24, Brantley 13, Le’afa 11) d Cairns 64 (Hogg 25, Kuol 13) – Round 4 at Cairns Convention Centre

In a game that better represented the vision of Dana White than James Naismith, the Breakers and Taipans grappled each other to a standstill. It looked like the Snakes would slither home when they led by 13 in the second term – having held New Zealand to just five in the opening stanza – but a drought-breaking three-point barrage to open the second half got the Kiwis back in the game, and Barry Brown Jr made the big plays late to finish the job.

What happened last game?

There was nothing ugly about the Breakers’ win over Adelaide, absorbing plenty of punches from the focused Sixers while executing superbly at the offensive end, shooting 63 per cent on twos and draining 12 triples at 38 per cent. Cairns also took plenty of hits from the determined Bullets, but Keanu Pinder and DJ Hogg combined for 14 points and three assists in the final three minutes to secure road win number five, their equal-most since NBL15.

What’s working?

Testing the interior – After Brisbane pulled within a point in last Saturday’s fourth quarter, the Taipans unleashed a 10-3 run to seal the W, with all of those points coming at the cup or from the free-throw line. While Cairns’ love of the three-ball is well known, they are 4-0 when they outscore opponents on ‘ones and twos’ – averaging 60.5 points from inside the arc – compared to 2-3 when they don’t, managing just 47.4 from those sources.

Defending the interior – New Zealand held the Snakes to 37 points from ‘ones and twos’ when they met in Round 4, allowing just 41 per cent from two point range. Those are both Cairns’ lowest returns of the season, and one of just two times they haven't shot 50 per cent or better inside. The Breakers’ vulnerability lies around which type of whistle arrives on the night, giving up 25 free-throws per game in losses compared to just 16.8 in their Ws.

What needs stopping?

DJ Hogg – On a night where his teammates scored a combined 39 points in 40 minutes at 31 per cent, Hogg stood tall against New Zealand in Round 4 with 25 points on 4/11 from range and 7/8 from the foul line, while only attempting one shot between the no-charge area and the arc. His past four games have delivered 22.3ppg at 51 per cent from the floor and 43 per cent from deep, and this presents as a job for the length and smarts of Tom Abercrombie.

Barry Brown – That fateful Round 4 afternoon was not one for offence, and where his teammates only scored 44 points and shot 9/24 from two-point range against Cairns’ athletic bigs, Brown sliced his way to 24 points on 8/13 inside the arc – including 4/5 on pull-ups – and 5/6 from the foul line. While he was wayward from outside that night, he’s shot 11/23 since, and you’d think the rangy Tahjere McCall will be the man to slow him down.

Who’s matching up?

Keanu Pinder v Dererk Pardon – Pinder fouling out late didn’t help the Snakes close out the teams’ Round 4 clash, with Cairns 1-2 when their centre exits the game early, 5-1 when he goes the distance. He only had six points on 3/9 that day, the only time this season KP has scored below 16, and for that Pardon and Jarrell Brantley deserve much credit. Since then he’s averaged 20.3ppg, 8.7rpg and 3.0apg, so they’ll need to make him a big focus again.

Shannon Scott v Izayah Le’afa – Against the top two, Sydney and New Zealand, Scott averages 7.0 assists and 3.0 turnovers, while against the rest of the NBL it’s 7.8 dimes and 1.2 cough-ups. He’s had 17 assists since his last miscue, and Scott’s composure and precise decision-making is key to harnessing the Taipans’ athletes. Can Le’afa force some errors and throw Cairns out of kilter? Or is Scott better prepared for NZ’s physicality this time around?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? <a href="https://twitter.com/Dj_hogg1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dj_hogg1</a> THROWS IT DOWN!<br><br>We don&#39;t know what&#39;s better - DJ&#39;s dunk or JD&#39;s reaction ? <a href="https://t.co/I6RZZC7tDW">pic.twitter.com/I6RZZC7tDW</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1584026819874807808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

When the Breakers entered Cairns in Round 4, they were playing their fourth game in eight days, backing up off a thrashing from South East Melbourne and 4000km of travel in between.

They scored just five points in the opening term, trailed by 13 in the second and somehow found a way to win.

While it was far from their prettiest win of the season, no performance better typified what the NBL23 Breakers are about.

“We’re a tough, tight-knit group, we showed that tonight, we were able to overcome a tough first half for us offensively, and even some stretches defensively, but we got it done in the end,” guard Barry Brown said.

“Our bond off the court helps us be there for each other on the court, and it’s only going to get stronger with the experiences we have as the season goes.”

The reality was the Breakers barely took a moment off defensively, let alone a possession, as they fought through fatigue to not just match the Taipans’ effort levels, but grind them to a halt.

“To perform against a great team like Cairns who push you to the max from an effort standpoint all the time, our guys just brought this elite level of toughness,” coach Mody Maor said.

“It’s the bedrock of who we are. It’s a real challenge to perform this way against such good opposition … it’s not about talking about our defence, it’s about executing and doing.

“We had a great defensive effort across the board, a lot of guys came in and competed and gave us energy and gave us toughness against a team that pushes you.”

The man leading that charge was Dererk Pardon, who ripped in a team-high eight defensive rebounds as NZ pulled in 77 per cent at that end to starve Cairns of extra shots.

Pardon also led the way when it came to subduing Keanu Pinder, who had easily his worst game of the season against a frontcourt that played with even more juice than he does.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I beg your PARDON ??<br><br>Dererk with a firecracker jam in this ridiculously tight game ?<br><br>Catch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/FizJHGne3n">pic.twitter.com/FizJHGne3n</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1593542808203194368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“DP is a blessing. Same like all our guys. Rarely do I have occasions where I have to coach caring or I have to coach effort, these guys bring it,” coach Maor said after Pardon did the same to Adelaide’s frontcourt.

“I think what makes DP special is he’s contagious. When he brings it he also picks up the next guy who had a rough night or a rough day and he brings them on his back and they come along.

“You’re never going to see this group flat because there are two or three guys I can count on who are going to pick up the guys around them.”

That afternoon in Round 4, Cairns coach Adam Forde thought his team was flattened by New Zealand’s intensity.

“The ball stuck, everything was just unnecessarily held up, there were a lot of errors that we made,” he said.

“Even though we were getting stops we only had 16 points. It just felt like everything was just a grind.

“We showed some clips at half-time where against Melbourne the ball was zipping around the floor, and here everything was rather than a half-second decision, it was like a 1.5-second decision.

“We knew the Breakers were going to get after it, they were going to be switching, hard-showing, we wanted to stretch the defence a little bit, and move the ball to get the ball behind it.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mirko hitting his target ? <a href="https://t.co/U8Myhi881S">pic.twitter.com/U8Myhi881S</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1584046250978324480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“The ball never moved, it was moving to the wrong areas, the ball was moving to the loaded-up side when we wanted to get guys flaring out of that action.

“It was disappointing, it was just a grind of a game, and even when we were up we were never in control of it.

“We weren’t aggressive, we weren’t attacking, we weren’t moving the ball, credit to New Zealand.”

Will Friday’s rematch be the same slugfest? Perhaps not. The Breakers are coming off a five-day break and Cairns six, while the same amount of grappling has not been permitted since the FIBA break.

That hasn’t stopped coach Maor continuing his backs-to-the-wall theme, given Friday’s game without Rob Loe is followed by a tough turnaround to face Brisbane in Auckland less than 48 hours later.

It means the us-against-them mentality, which has so often been a trademark of New Zealand teams competing in Australia, will continue to drive this relentless Breakers unit.

“It’s a challenge we embrace. This is not something we have to do, it’s something we get to do. We get to compete against great teams in tough circumstances. This is how we grow and get better,” Maor said.

“We’ve been through the exact same stretch in the beginning of the season with three back-to-backs in a row with travel.

“The guys know what to expect, we know how to prepare. Cairns is a phenomenal team and Brisbane are a phenomenal team and it’s going to be a challenge we relish those challenges.”