Preview: Cairns v Illawarra (Round 10)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 10 December, 2022

Where: Cairns Convention Centre

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Illawarra 79 (Reath 16, Cleveland 15) d Cairns 54 (Deng 11) – Round 12, NBL22 at WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong.

The crackdown on contact in NBL22 started in Round 13, and the tipping point may have been this 133-point shocker in Wollongong a week before, where the intense Hawks manhandled the struggling Snakes, holding them to 30 per cent from the field, forcing 17 turnovers and allowing just 17 points in total for the second half.

What happened last game?

It was Illawarra’s turn to feel the pain on Thursday night, smashed by 39 points by a rampaging Phoenix outfit. Remarkably, scores were level 90 seconds before half-time, but a high-quality opening from the Hawks soon turned into a nightmare. Cairns also had a disastrous second half last start in Adelaide, leading by 17 early in the third, they were outscored 46-26 in the final 19 minutes to fall for the fourth time in their past seven games.

What’s working?

Fast starts – The Taipans are five wins, one loss and a draw from their past seven opening quarters, scoring 22.7 points behind the early hot hand of DJ Hogg, going +41 and averaging a biggest first-half lead of 9.7 points. Of course, with the yin comes the yang, and Adam Forde’s men are five losses, one win and a draw in final terms over the same span, giving up 22.7 points and coughing up a final-quarter lead in three of their four defeats.

Michael Frazier II – Hogg was shut down in Adelaide by Antonius Cleveland, a task that will likely fall to Frazier. With DJ averaging 5.5ppg on eight attempts in Cairns’ past two losses, Frazier’s ability to deny supply will be key. He will also test Hogg’s D, having racked up 17.7ppg in his opening three contests as a Hawk, shooting 53 per cent from the field, 55 per cent from deep and getting to the foul line 10 times to lead his club in all four categories.

What needs stopping?

The roller-coaster – While Frazier has been a rock so far, he is floating in a sea of inconsistency. The Hawks only capable of putting together one good effort between blow-outs – their average differential in their past three ‘even’ games is +2.3, compared to -28.5 in their past four ‘odd’ games – and so far they haven't shown the resilience when challenged, only twice retaking a lead after being more than six points down.

Blazing away – The Taipans take the most three-pointers in the NBL (33.5) and shoot the lowest clip (31%). That’s not a great recipe for success, especially considering their past four games have delivered just 7.3 trifectas at 24 per cent. In Adelaide, as scoring dried up after half-time, they attempted 15 triples in the final 20 minutes, making just two. Adam Forde will be emphasising to his athletes that getting downhill more often is a winning recipe.

Who’s matching up?

Bul Kuol v Peyton Siva – In the win and double-overtime loss against Melbourne, Siva dealt 18 assists and just six turnovers as he masterminded the Illawarra O. In his other four games, all double-figure losses, Peyton’s dealt 20 dimes to 14 cough-ups. Siva is the head of the snake, so will Kuol, the Snakes’ chief defensive stopper, get the job or will he be deployed to Tyler Harvey? And who does Tahjere McCall dog once he enters the game?

Keanu Pinder v Sam Froling – In Froling’s past three ‘even’ games he’s averaged 24.3ppg at 68 per cent and 10.7prg. In his past three ‘odd’ games those numbers shrink to 7.7ppg at 42 per cent and 7.3rpg. The bad news for Taipans fans is Sam’s due for a big one. Cairns were torn a new one by Sydney finding Xavier Cooks in the cracks, can they do a better job denying Froling catches there? And can Sam keep up with Keanu in the open court?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Keanu Pinder throws it DOWN after the lob pass from Shannon Scott!!! ??<br><br>Watch LIVE on ESPN ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/96mUUS4N6C">pic.twitter.com/96mUUS4N6C</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1598622084812656640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 2, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Fans who are detached from the day-to-day of professional basketball often believe there are obvious answers for coaches to implement when their team is struggling.

The reality is much different. A factor overlooked even by expert commentators – some of whom constantly lambast teams when their star isn’t regularly getting shots up – is there are very good, well-scouted defensive teams taking their opponents’ strengths away on every possession.

This creates a jigsaw puzzle of counters and on-the-fly reads to exploit the chinks in the defensive armour that arise from various schemes.

When it comes to the Illawarra Hawks getting consistency, that’s a particularly frustrating puzzle for coach Jacob Jackomas, who watched his team score 93 against Melbourne and then just 72 on South East Melbourne three days later.

Worse still, the Hawks ran up 50 on the Phoenix in the first half and a paltry 22 in the final 20 minutes.

“In the third quarter I didn’t think we couldn’t get anything going,” he said.

“If I had the answer I would probably fix it straight away. I would say right now as a group, coaches and staff included, we haven't been able to put two good games together, this was evident again today and this keeps being the challenge every time we go around.

“Today we felt pretty good about it, at half-time I felt pretty good about it, even though there (as SEM’s) 58-point half-time score.

“It could be down to anything, there’s a lot of factors we’ve had to deal with but no excuses, we were able to do it for a half, why weren’t we able to do it for two?”

One man who epitomises the Hawk’s roller-coaster ride is centre Sam Froling.

This isn’t really all that surprising, considering he was a promising 21-year-old role player in NBL22, now thrust into the limelight as his team’s number one interior scoring option less than a year later.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sam Froling getting the work done! That’s 25 points so far! <a href="https://t.co/BK7kJuxu3S">pic.twitter.com/BK7kJuxu3S</a></p>&mdash; ESPN Australia &amp; NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ/status/1599701666349338624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 5, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There is no doubt he has the ability to be a star in this competition, but he’s also at a stage of his development where doing it consistently against different defences is a big ask.

He’s twice dominated Melbourne, who are statistically the NBL’s worst team at guarding the roller out of ball-screen situations, and was outstanding against a Kings defence missing centerpiece Xavier Cooks.

Against opponents who take away his roll-out game, or disrupt the Hawks’ guards so they struggle to get into ball-screen action in dangerous positions, Samson is still figuring out how to be effective.

“I think South East had a pretty decent game plan for guarding us and guarding our on-balls and the second half they really turned it up a notch,” he said.

“It messed with me and I've got to find a way to play through teams’ scout and get my own, and get my confidence up with that kind of stuff and not let it rattle me.

“That’s something I'm learning as I go along this year.”

Add to the fact the key creators Peyton Siva and Michael Frazier have only been with the team for six and three games respectively, and you know why coach Jackomas scoffed at the suggestion of making kneejerk changes after Thursday’s huge loss.

“We've just gotten a core group of guys together, it’s been three games with our core guys, so no I won’t be doing that,” he said.

“I've got to give these guys an opportunity to play with each other … we've got to keep our belief, which is going to be tough, and keep moving forward as a group and eventually see where we go.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Michael decided to finish his breakfast ?<br><br>? ESPN via Kayo Sports + Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/VTtXdROlC9">pic.twitter.com/VTtXdROlC9</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1600782860780462080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

One thing certain to result from that disappointing performance in Melbourne is the Hawks bringing the heat in Cairns on Saturday.

The Taipans set the tone in Adelaide last week but turned the temperature down and paid the price against a more desperate team as the game wore on.

“I think it was just their hustle. They dominated us on the boards and we came out in that second half just getting dominated,” big man Sam Waardenburg said.

“We gave up too many o-boards, Hyrum (Harris) did an amazing job coming off the bench and changing the game for them.

“This is adversity that we are going to have to look back at and get better from. If we are going to be a great team we have to adapt to that adversity and come out better from it.”

A home loss for the Taipans could see them in fifth place by the end of the round, and to prevail coach Adam Forde knows they need to improve their offensive decision-making when forced to play half-court.

While the Snakes are adept at slithering to the hoop in transition, when in slow mode they too often revert to long-range heaves, something that will set Siva, Frazier and Tyler Harvey free in the open court.

“We were a little bit stagnant again at different times. There was opportunities where we could potentially drive and we settled maybe unnecessarily for the outside shot, so we put Tahj in there to deliver that message and put some heat on the rim,” Forde said.

“We did a half-decent job of attacking it and trying to get foul shots, but we’re going to look back at this tape and see multiple examples where we unnecessarily settled for the shot when we could have made it an easier challenge for ourselves at the rim.”