Preview: Brisbane v Perth (Round 9)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 1 December 2022

Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Perth 87 (Cotton 23, Wagstaff 14, Thomas 12) d Brisbane 73 (Walker 16, Johnson 13, Baynes 11, Froling 11) – Round 1 at RAC Arena, Perth

The new era in Brisbane started with promise as Tanner Krebs and Tyler Johnson got hot and they streaked 11 ahead of Perth. That’s about as good as it got though, the Wildcats unleashing a 42-16 run behind the shooting of Bryce Cotton and Corey Webster, and some quality frontcourt playmaking from Luke Travers and TaShawn Thomas to cruise to their first victory of the John Rillie era.

What happened last game?

The Bullets certainly didn’t start hot in New Zealand last Sunday, down Aron Baynes and Tyrell Harrison and then down 30 midway through the second term as they gave up 65 first-half points in a heartless display. Perth didn’t show much ticker themselves as they lost by a record margin to the 36ers, trailing all night, getting smashed by near-biblical proportions in the paint and falling to their fourth loss from their past five home games.

What’s working?

Opposition offences – That was the sixth time in seven games the 'Cats have leaked 89 points or more, giving up 93.4ppg at 50 per cent in those seven outings for a 2-5 record. John Rillie’s men are -100 on points in the paint during that span, conceding a whopping 45.4 points inside the key while scoring just 31.1 themselves. They were beaten 60-28 in that category by the 36ers in an insipid display. Concerningly, Perth have forced a mere 10.2 turnovers in that stretch, showing they’re neither containing nor disrupting.

Sobes getting fouled? – Things looked to be getting back on track when Brisbane notched a three-game win streak, and even when they went close to the red-hot Taipans, but the wheels came off in Auckland last week as they gave up 116 points at 68 per cent from two-point range. If you wanted a positive, it would have to be the Bullets getting to the foul line 40 times, Nathan Sobey drawing 10 fouls as he finishing with 14 points and 10 assists, and they’ll need classic Sobes at both ends to take on Cotton and generate plenty of offence.

What needs stopping?

Bryce Cotton – Bryce probably once thought they were the Brisbane Bunnies, because he destroyed them for 23.6ppg at 48 per cent from outside in their first eight meetings. The scoring still holds at 22.4ppg, but he’s hit just 28 per cent of threes in the past 13 clashes. The trade-off comes elsewhere, Cotton shooting 7/11 from inside with six dimes in Perth’s Round 1 win, and it will be interesting to see which poison the Bullets choose this time.

Three-point bombers – Brisbane’s marksmanship is on the decline – going 23/88 from deep the past three games – but they are still hitting the third most triples (10.5) at the highest clip (37%). The absence of floor-spreaders in Baynes (39%) and DJ Mitchell (52%), and the release of the sharp-shooting Devondrick Walker (44%) has hurt, so perhaps their undersized line-up’s best chance is for Sobey, Johnson, Krebs and Jason Cadee to get hot.

Who’s matching up?

Harry Froling v Brady Manek – Add Froling to that list, given he dropped 8/10 from range in January en route to 27 points on Adelaide. Remarkably, he’s only hit multiple treys twice in 31 games since, but more concerningly only grabbed two boards last week, and Brisbane need more if they are to prevail. Manek shot 11/15 from deep in Perth’s recent two-game streak, but 6/26 in six losses surrounding that, making him an offensive barometer.

Tyler Johnson v Corey Webster – After a slow start to his time in red, Webster has produced 14ppg in just over 23 minutes the past three contests, nailing 38 per cent from deep after going 5/24 in his opening seven games. The Bullets are 3-1 with Johnson coming off the bench and 0-6 with him starting, but with their long list of outs he’ll need to be out there most of the night. Tyler’s reached double-figures in nine of 10 games, but only hit 20 points once, and if Brisbane are to pinch this one, he’ll probably need to double that tally.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Clutch shot by Tyler Johnson<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a><br> <a href="https://t.co/0tG9bylUbj">pic.twitter.com/0tG9bylUbj</a></p>&mdash; NBL News (@NBL_News) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL_News/status/1578971820296114176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 9, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Could this be the week Perth finally win the rebound count?

It’s staggering to think this long-time, glass-cleaning powerhouse of the NBL – even with undersized players like Shawn Redhage and Matt Knight at the four and five spots – has not once grabbed more boards than their opponents this season.

They rank dead last for defensive rebounding percentage and ninth in that category in o-boards, grabbing just 47 per cent of available caroms when adjusted for each end.

The bad news is Brisbane is the number two ranked defensive rebounding team. The good news is they languish in eighth for o-boards.

The better news for 'Cats fans is two of the Bullets’ three leading rebounders – Baynes and Harrison – will all be missing on Thursday night.

Brisbane’s effort was also missing in Auckland last Sunday, looking every bit a team that had endured a surprise late-week coaching change and the withdrawal of key players.

“It was a tough week,” forward Tanner Krebs said.

“A lot happened, we can’t deny that was the case, but that shouldn’t affect our heart, our intensity and how we play the game.

“Tonight they just bullied us and it’s unacceptable.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">When dunking it forwards is too easy ? <a href="https://t.co/wI1ouXCh9W">pic.twitter.com/wI1ouXCh9W</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1596712261602508800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It leaves the Bullets’ season at a significant crossroads just 10 games in. The ladder says they are only two games behind Adelaide and Tasmania in fifth and sixth place.

Their body language last week said they are on the verge of self-destructing.

The reality is every team bar Sydney has suffered blowouts this season, and it’s what happens next that determines whether that performance is an aberration of the start of a trend.

Given the Bullets’ season has been littered with close games and near misses, Mackinnon is confident that resilience and fight will reemerge once players have their heads around the new situation.

“We’ll turn it around. There will be better effort and better intent about it,” he said.

“I think we’ll be a hell of a lot better … we’re a group that cares about each other, so I have no doubt we’ll turn it around.”

Of course, the big challenge is how do you run Bryce Cotton off the three-point line if you don’t have your big men there to challenge at the cup?

This is a pressing issue for Mackinnin and Co, given the Bullets’ defence has successfully been built by James Duncan around channeling opponents into the tall trees.

“Baynes is a big presence defensively, especially under the rim,” Krebs said.

“Not having him – and Tyrell does the same thing – not having them obviously hurts a bit, but it doesn’t matter. We have guys that are capable of doing that.”

Harry Froling and Gorjok Gak will need to stand tall and strong, while Krebs may even move to the four-spot to match-up on Jesse Wagstaff and Luke Travers when Perth go to their quick line-up.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RISE UP, LT. ?<br><br>Bid on Luke’s and the team’s game-worn Pink jerseys at <a href="https://t.co/Pn5G2R1UK3">https://t.co/Pn5G2R1UK3</a>, with all net proceeds going to our <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BreastFriends?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BreastFriends</a> at <a href="https://twitter.com/BreastCancer_WA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BreastCancer_WA</a>.<br><br>Auction closes 5pm Monday! <a href="https://t.co/rO6TnpmkGb">pic.twitter.com/rO6TnpmkGb</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1596340090153758720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wagstaff's shooting will be important if Brisbane go back to their zone defence, which was effective momentarily in Auckland before being exploited mercilessly.

Perth nailed 12 triples against Adelaide in one of the few highlights, and coach John Rillie just wants his team ready to execute their stuff against whatever a new-look Brisbane throws at them.

“No matter what team we play, we’re going to prepare the same way,” he said.

“It has to be more about us, when we’re a little hot and cold with our performances, it really comes down to us, our mentality and how we’re prepared to sacrifice as individuals to be better for the team.

“Brisbane’s defence, besides the zone, is still very similar in principle to the first time we played them, so we can reflect on the first time we played them and pick a part what we felt worked well against them.”

Rillie’s biggest concern is similar to his former teammate Mackinnon’s, and that is consistently coaxing the level of effort and intensity needed to compete in the NBL.

This has not been an issue for Perth for around 15 years, but they put on an embarrassing display on their home floor last week against Adelaide, similar to their no-show in Hobart earlier in the season.

Rillie candidly admitted his team “didn’t have the presence or the physicality that we’ve had the last couple of games”, but a turnaround could potentially see them as high as fifth spot by round's end.

“I can sit here and say well it will only be one game this time, but for us if we’re not playing with that physicality or that intent on both ends of the floor, we’re an average team in the NBL,” he said.

“When we apply ourselves and are great teammates, we are a very good team but our margin is very slim.”