‘Let it Rip’: The Roadmap to an Unlikely Perth Victory in Game 3

By Liam Santamaria.

 

The Perth Wildcats are in a deep, deep hole.

Down 0-2 in the Grand Final Series, with the remaining games all to be played in Melbourne, it feels like an inevitability that United will claim the championship.

Of course, it ain’t officially over until Dean Vickerman’s men put the finishing touches on that all-important third and final win.

One thing you have to say about these Wildcats, though, is that they’ve battled. There’s no doubt about that. Down a number of key guys – especially Bryce Cotton, the league’s most valuable player – the two-time defending champs have been gallant in defeat in each of the first two games.

It’s just been too big a mountain to climb. And from here the snowy peak is so high, it’s no longer even visible.

After all, no team has ever lost the first two games of an NBL Grand Final Series and fought back to win the title. Add in Perth’s debilitating injury situation and it’s hard to see a way back into the series.

Naturally, the Wildcats aren’t looking at it like that.

“We’re just going to let it rip,” Perth big man John Mooney told media this week.

“Obviously we’re down 2-0 but right now we’re just going to take it one game at a time; that’s our mentality.

“We’re playing well and we’re very close so our confidence is up. We’ve just got to go in there and, again, let it rip.”

He’s right. From their perspective that’s the only way to approach it.

Kevin White made similar comments immediately following the loss in Game 2.

“It’s just one basketball game,” White said.

“We win one basketball game and then we move onto the next one. Then we go from there again… we’ve just got to find a way to win a basketball game.”

So what can Perth do in Game 3? What is the roadmap towards pulling off an unlikely victory to extend the series?

Let’s take a look.

 

GET SOME HELP

This is the most important element heading into Game 3: get Luke Travers and Clint Steindl back on the floor.

I mean, having Cotton on the sidelines is one thing but combining that with the loss of two other key rotation players has been absolutely devastating.

Travers was a revelation in the semi-finals as he provided x-factor impact with his attack on the rim and energy on the glass. He’s been sorely missed in this series.

As for Steindl, the groin strain he suffered in the second quarter of Game 1 was a disaster for the ‘Cats. Without Cotton this is a squad that’s desperate for offensive production and Steindl’s scoring was always going to be crucial for their chances in the series.

The key issue here is how much Perth’s offensive system relies on having two knockdown shooters on the floor. So often in Trevor Gleeson’s ‘LA’ series, the Wildcats have one of their shooters run off screens that are set by another guy who can knock it down. These actions are really difficult for the defence to navigate and the ‘Cats are masters at punishing any miscommunication.

Take this play from Game 1 for example. Watch as Shea Ili and Chris Goulding lose track of Steindl in one of those exchanges, leading to an open look on the arc.

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Without either Cotton or Steindl in the line-up these actions have just become immeasurably easier for United to guard.

Cotton’s done for the season, we know that. But, as Bogues knows (below), the Wildcats desperately need Steindl back on the floor to give them any realistic chance of extending the series.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Credit to Perth! They battle.<br>United just too deep.<br>If <a href="https://twitter.com/ClintSteindl?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClintSteindl</a> is out for series I am changing my prediction to 3-0. <a href="https://t.co/gfLV8ga6O9">https://t.co/gfLV8ga6O9</a></p>&mdash; Andrew Bogut (@andrewbogut) <a href="https://twitter.com/andrewbogut/status/1405862323680550915?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 18, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 DOMINATE THE GLASS

There’s a whole lot that needs to come together for the Wildcats and this is a big one.

Perth led the league in offensive rebounding percentage this season (closely followed by Melbourne) but they’re yet to flex their muscle on the glass this series.

Why? Well, not having the MVP is part of it. His impact helps bend defences out of shape and put them in rotations, helping Perth’s bigs crash the glass for put-backs and tip-ins.

The other issue is that Melbourne are an outstanding rebounding team in their own right, especially defensively. In fact, United led the league in defensive rebounding percentage across the regular season (closely followed by Perth).

Yep, these are the two best rebounding teams battling it out in the championship series. And, at the end of the day, a monstrous effort on the glass is what’s required from the Wildcats on Friday night. With scoring so difficult right now, second chance points are even more valuable than usual.

“It starts with me,” Mooney stated emphatically.

“Big fella (Jock Landale) had 17 boards (in Game 2) so getting some more rebounds out there could really help the team.”

 

PLAY THROUGH BLANCHFIELD

I know, it sounds simple – but the ‘Cats need to consistently play through their number one scoring target at the offensive end.

After all, that’s how this team is built; to play through an elite offensive weapon.

Now, Todd Blanchfield is no Bryce Cotton. I get that. But they essentially need to treat him like he is.

After all, that’s how Melbourne are defending him. Dean Vickerman knows that without Cotton – and especially without both Cotton and Steindl – the Wildcats are heavily dependent on Blanchfield to put points on the board. As a result, United are massively locked-in on limiting his touches and strongly contesting his looks.

The Wildcats need to embrace that pressure and use it against Melbourne to create scoring opportunities. Use it to their own advantage. By playing through Blanchfield as much as possible, the ‘Cats will be able to find ways to punish the D for overcompensating towards him, just like they usually do when playing through Cotton.

Don’t get me wrong, Perth did do this from time to time in Game 2 but nowhere near often enough. Watch here as Blanchfield punishes Landale for helping on his curl by dropping it off to Mooney at the bucket.

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That’s beautiful execution in the half-court but this concept applies in transition as well.

The Wildcats typically make a focus of finding Cotton when they’re flying down the court after getting a stop. If he has the rock they slap on drag screens and, if he doesn’t, they set early picks for him away from the ball (something South East Melbourne also did really effectively this season for Cam Gliddon).

It’s that kind of action that was clearly on Mooney’s mind here when he tried to set this pick for Blanchfield. Watch how Landale and Goulding are both drawn towards Blanchfield, leaving Mooney and Magnay to play 2-on-1 against Jo Lual-Acuil.

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This is the kind of stuff the Wildcats get when they make a real focus of playing through their number one man. Ideally that would be the MVP. Right now, it’s Blanchfield.

 

BACK-CUT THE PRESSURE

I mentioned this during the broadcast of Game 2 and spoke further about it on NBL Overtime… you can’t let Melbourne sit in the passing lanes!

One of United’s goals at the defensive end is to disrupt Perth’s execution as much as possible. The Wildcats like to get plenty of ball and player movement each time down the floor and Melbourne are using their pressure to minimise those exchanges. They’re pressuring the ball and denying leads – making it difficult for the ‘Cats to get through their stuff.

Back-cut that pressure!

This play from Mooney late in Game 2 is the perfect example of how to use that pressure to create easy finishes at the rim.

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And you know who needs to back-cut the most? Blanchfield.

Melbourne made some adjustments to their coverages on Blanchfield after he lit them up in Game 1. They were way more physical with him off the ball (something that infuriated Trevor Gleeson), which enabled them to fight through the down-screens and dribble-hand-offs Perth use to get him open.

When Yudai Baba checked in, the Japanese guard made a further change to that coverage. He altered his angles and started top-locking Blanchfield away from the ball. This is a technique in which a defender plants himself between his man and a screen – usually a ‘pindown’ – to force him away from that pick.

Watch this play to see how Baba, after navigating through an initial flex-cut, top-locks Blanchfield in anticipation of a pin-down from Magnay. Watch also how open the back-cut is for Blanchfield here.

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Like, hello? Mooney just needs to throw the ball towards the basket and it’s an easy two points. There is literally nobody between Blanchfield and the rim. And you know what? Baskets like that will force Baba to adjust his stance which will make it easier for Todd to get open next time down the floor.

Just quietly, the rest of that play serves as a really good example of how playing through Blanchfield brings Mooney and Magnay into the mix on the glass. As David Barlow helps Baba on Blanchfield’s penetration, Landale is forced to deal with both Mooney and Magnay as offensive rebounders and a tip-in results.

So, there you go. If the Wildcats can somehow pull all of that together tomorrow night – and Melbourne have an off shooting night – then maybe, just maybe they’ll be able to extend the series.

Unfortunately, as gallant as they’ve been thus far, Cotton’s absence has just been too much to overcome. This series would’ve been very different if the MVP had never copped those hits and, when all is said and done, it will wind up being the great ‘what if’ of this season: what if Cotton had never gotten hurt?

To that, we’ll never know the answer.

What we will know soon, however, is the result of Game 3. And whether or not the Wildcats can avoid a series sweep.