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NBL Store Fantasy Fix | Round 6

Written for nbl.com.au by Tom Hersz


It’s a long season. Form can come and go, but it’s not about how you look in October. What matters is building towards being your best as a group when that calendar switches over to the New Year in the race to the Finals.


Two of last year’s finalists have had a less than ideal start to the season, but have managed to turn things around.


The Brisbane Bullets had lost three straight heading into Round 5 and after dismissing some media scrutiny about their imports, they faced a tough double hosting Perth and then traveling down to the ‘Gong to face the Hawks. Andrej Lemanis’ men passed with flying colours, notching two impressive wins to get their record back above .500 and move into the top four.


Melbourne United had fallen short in all but one game before Round 5 and, sitting at 1-4, were desperate to get back into the winners’ circle. That desperation seemed just the recipe for success as they evened up the Throwdown series against the Phoenix before surviving an epic game against the Kings on Melbourne Cup Eve. United are now 3-4 so have more work ahead, but at least they’ve tasted victory again and will use that to try to build momentum.


In Fantasy, momentum is hard to come by and the schedule can play a big part each week, so all you can do is focus on maximising your team’s potential production by making the right trades for the coming rounds ahead.


Not sure where to start? Fantasy Fix is here to help steer your team in the right direction.


Round 6 (Nov 7 – Nov 10)


2 Games: Melbourne, New Zealand, Sydney


1 Game: Adelaide, Brisbane, Cairns, Illawarra, Perth, SE Melbourne


A lighter schedule awaits in Round 6 with three teams having doubles this week.


Melbourne United and New Zealand are in the final week of their nice schedules of doubles, with Sydney ending a two-week run of their own.


Sydney and New Zealand will then have singles for three straight rounds so you may want to consider your options in dealing some of them out. Adelaide, Perth and South East Melbourne have doubles in Round 7 so could be possible options if you’re planning ahead.


To help you plan, here are the top 10 price risers and price fallers after Round 5;


Risers

1.   Shawn Long: +$100,000 ($2.14m)

2.   Scott Machado: +$100,000 ($1.44m)

3.   John Roberson: +$100,000 ($1.39m)

4.   LaMelo Ball: +$100,000 ($1.35m)

5.   Cam Oliver: +$100,000 ($1.27m)

6.   Brandon Ashley: +$100,000 ($1.16m)

7.   Anthony Drmic: +$100,000 ($1.15m)

8.   Corey Webster: +$100,000 ($1.11m)

9.   Majok Deng: +$100,000 ($1.05m)

10.RJ Hampton: +$100,000 ($1.05m)

11.Dane Pineau: +$100,000 ($0.806m)

12.Will Magnay: +$100,000 ($0.650m)

13.Shaun Bruce: +$100,000 ($0.592m)


Fallers

1.   Nick Kay: -$100,000 ($1.86m)

2.   Josh Boone: -$100,000 ($1.25m)

3.   Cameron Gliddon: -$100,000 ($0.932m)

4.   Lucas Walker: -$94,000 ($0.452m)

5.   Daniel Grida: -$94,000 ($0.417m)

6.   Reuben Te Rangi: -$88,000 ($0.414m)

7.   Ater Majok: -$87,000 ($0.642m)

8.   Keith Benson: -$84,000 ($0.791m)

9.   Nathan Jawai: -$83,000 ($0.648m)

10.Alex Pledger: -$81,000 ($0.683m)


This is getting ridiculous! We’re now up to 13 players whose value rose by the maximum $100k this past round. Leading the way was Mr. Double-Double who topped the round for the second straight week with 149 total fantasy points. Corey Webster’s big week also saw him rise by the max and we can probably expect more weeks like this in the immediate future. More on Long and Webster below.


Losing the most value this week was Nick Kay who averaged just 27.5 fantasy points across his 2 games in Round 5. It was an uncharacteristic week by the All-NBL power forward and he can now be had a little cheaper. Cam Gliddon’s role has been reduced at the moment and his price has fallen with it, but the Boomers wing will bounce back before you know it.  


It’s now time to look at the top trade targets for Round 6.


Anthony Drmic, SG/SF, ADL ($1.15m): While the result didn’t go their way against Sydney, Drmic was a huge part of why his team had several chances to win. After some solid, but slightly inconsistent production to-date, Drm was huge for the Sixers against a tough Kings team. He had his second career double-double on Saturday, with 11 points, 14 rebounds and 2 steals for good measure. A whopping 62 fantasy points was tops for the round of all Sixers and with their tasty schedule ahead, it’s a good time to get in on him.


Daniel Johnson, PF/C, ADL ($1.66m): If you want consistent production, look no further than DJ. He’s averaging 45.8 fantasy points on the season and has not scored less than 33 in any one game. He rebounds, he scores, he hits threes and moves the ball which all adds up to great production. If you are considering cashing out on Hodgson, Oliver or Kay, then DJ is a great option for the coming weeks.


Shawn Long, PF/C, MEL ($2.14m): Long was always likely to dominate against the Phoenix, but the way he did it, with such aggression and intent was really impressive. Not satisfied to stop there, he backed it up with another double-double against Bogut and the Kings on Monday. That was Long’s fifth straight double-double and he’s managed that feat in all but one game this season. He’s also now hit 6 threes on the season giving owners an added bonus. His 147 total fantasy points led the round and his 64.3 fp average leads the league. Up that to 73.7 fp over his past three games and Mr. Double-Double may be expensive, but he is worth every dollar.



Romelo Trimble, PG, MEL ($1.52m): Now 2-0 since going with the cornrows in his hair, Row-Melo Trimble had a huge impact on Melbourne’s 2-0 round. He didn’t have a great shooting night against South East Melbourne but played a big role in slowing down John Roberson. Against the Kings though, Trimble’s 27 points and 5 dimes paced United and translated to a hearty 52 fantasy points. Melbourne have more doubles coming up after this week starting in Round 9, so Trimble makes for a good investment right now.


Corey Webster, SG, NZB ($1.11m): With Hopson going down, Corey Webster put his backpack on and went to work to pick up the offensive slack. 23 points on 8-14 shooting along with a season-high 8 dimes and 2 steals – in a much-needed win over Cairns – produced a delightful 60 fantasy points. Webster then backed up against Perth with 21, 6 and 6 on his way to 49 fantasy points. His 109 total fp ranked second for the round and while the Breakers have three straight singles after Round 6, Webster will be needed every step of the way as they integrate new signing Glen Rice Jr and try to string some wins together.


Brandon Ashley, PF/C, NZB ($1.16m): Stepping up in the absence of Rob Loe, Ashley has now put up three straight big games. He’s averaging 19.7 points, 7.7 rebounds and most importantly, 44.3 fantasy points over that stretch. Ashley is the real deal and a much more affordable big man if you’re in the market for one.


Terrico White, SG/SF, PER ($1.18m): If it’s not Cotton it’s White. One of these guys seems to come up big in the clutch every time Perth is in a close game. White had a rough first half against the Breakers but came up big in the second half, finishing with 18 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 4 triples. He had a combined 75 fantasy points for the round and the reigning Grand Final MVP is back in impressive form again this season. He’s a great value option on the wing with the ‘Cats having a double again in Round 7.



Dario Hunt, PF/C, PER ($1.03m): We’ve seen glimpses of the potential all season, but Hunt finally put it all together against the Breakers. He came up huge with season-highs in points and rebounds with 21 and 11, including 4 o-boards. Hunt had 54 fantasy points against the Breakers and if he can back that up, then he’ll be a popular choice going forward.


Shaun Bruce, PG, SYD ($0.592m): Will Weaver has been singing the praises of Bruce all season and on Monday night it became evident to everyone else around the league just what Weaver had been seeing. Post-game, Weaver asked Casper Ware to take a turn to talk about Bruce. “Man, man, man, I love that guy. I can’t talk about him enough,” Ware said of his backup before he and Weaver went on to share some more insights. The fact is Bruce came up huge when the Kings were undermanned. Deshon Taylor was making his debut, Didi Louzada got hurt, Weaver got tossed and Bruce came out swinging to the tune of 14 points and 8 assists on 5-7 shooting. Impact player. Man, man, man indeed.



Casper Ware, PG, SYD ($1.30m): Maybe it was the familiarity with Melbourne Arena. Maybe it was wanting to send a message to United on what they passed up. Maybe he wasn’t pleased with his game in Adelaide two days prior. Whatever it was, Ware put on a master class in how to create offence against his old pals on Monday night. He put up an NBL season-high 34 points, scoring in a variety of ways. He hit 4 triples, made 10 FTs and got to the rim on numerous occasions. Ware also dished 4 assists and grabbed 5 boards as he did everything possible to keep his team undefeated. His 54 fantasy points should get you excited that more is in store.


Others to consider:


Jason Cadee, PG, BRI ($0.986m): If you were to shake Cadee’s hand today, it’d likely still be warm. That’s how hot he got in Round 5. Playing his sparkplug role of the bench, Cadee averaged 16.5 points on the round, while going a combined 9-19 from deep. He also chipped in 8 assists, 7 rebounds, 82 fantasy points and two big wins on the round.


RJ Hampton, PG, NZB ($1.05m): It was a round of season-highs for Hampton. A season-high 18 points against Cairns, followed by season highs in assists (4) and rebounds (8) against Perth. He’s now averaging 40 fantasy points over his past three games and seems to be a lot more comfortable in how to impact games. His usage gets a spike with Hopson out so this last double for the Breakers for a few weeks could be the right time to play him.



Captain’s Choice


For Round 6, my top three choices for Captain are:


Shawn Long, PF/C, MEL


Andrew Bogut, C, SYD


Corey Webster, SG, NZB


You have to ride the hot hand and no one is in better form than Long right now. If he’s on your team, he has to be your captain. If not, then Bogut will impact games in a variety of ways while still being capable of monster efforts. If neither big guy is your thing, then Webster has another double to keep firing. His 48 fantasy points over his past three proves he can be a viable option.


Momentum is key so keep building with the players who can ensure your team is peaking at the right moments, starting with some of the names above in Round 6.


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