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NBL Store Fantasy Fix | Round 13

Written for nbl.com.au by Tom Hersz


If Christmas is the time of giving, then we saw several higher-ranked teams get right into the Christmas spirit in Round 12, giving up unlikely wins to their opponents.


There were five upsets (if you can call any game an upset in NBL20) from the seven games played. That’s right … five lower placed teams on the NBL20 ladder won, causing nightmares for tipsters and punters alike (gamble responsibly).


The biggest upsets came back to back on Saturday night as the top two teams both lost.


While on the flipside, a team seemingly out of contention for a Finals spot, in the New Zealand Breakers, won two games and kept a glimmer of hope alive.


What this tells us is that it’s not too late to turn your season around. Sometimes you need to shed some dead weight, get someone back from injury, or just find a way to be more productive and you can get right back to winning.


Your NBL Fantasy team is no different. You can use this huge round to get your team to be more productive and end the year on a winning note.


So let’s all get in that holiday spirit and give ourselves a gift with the right trades, via the last Fantasy Fix of 2019.


Round 13 (Dec 26 – Jan 1)


2 Games: Adelaide, Brisbane, Cairns, Illawarra, Melbourne, New Zealand, Perth, SE Melbourne, Sydney


It’s finally here – the Super Round! Every single team in the league has a double … all in one round. What’s a better holiday gift than that?


Of course, while this gives a lot more flexibility this week, you still need to look beyond Round 13 to ensure your trade-in guys are not one and done with singles in Round 14. So plan your trades wisely.


Adelaide, Brisbane and Illawarra all have doubles in Round 14, while Cairns and New Zealand get back on track in Round 15 so those five may be your priority teams right now.


If you’re worried about how much money you have left after your Christmas shopping, let’s see if you made any money recently by looking at the top 10 price risers and price fallers following Round 12;


Risers

1.   Shawn Long: +$100,000 ($1.97m)

2.   Nick Kay: +$100,000 ($1.84m)

3.   Cam Oliver: +$100,000 ($1.82m)

4.   Eric Griffin: +$100,000 ($1.45m)

5.   Sunday Dech: +$100,000 ($0.950m)

6.   Will Magnay: +$100,000 ($0.874m)

7.   Xavier Cooks: +$100,000 ($0.628m)

8.   Emmett Naar: +$100,000 ($0.622m)

9.   Angus Glover: +$100,000 ($0.590m)

10. Daniel Kickert: +$93,000 ($0.704m)


Fallers

1.   Lamar Patterson: -$100,000 ($1.60m)

2.   Daniel Johnson: -$100,000 ($1.57m)

3.   Andrew Bogut: -$100,000 ($1.56m)

4.   Tai Wesley: -$100,000 ($1.24m)

5.   Anthony Drmic: -$100,000 ($1.12m)

6.   Keith Benson: -$100,000 ($0.629m)

7.   Terry Armstrong: -$100,000 ($0.580m)

8.   Billy Preston: -$99,000 ($0.853m)

9.   Chris Goulding: -$97,000 ($0.982m)

10. Brandon Ashley: -$85,000 ($1.22m)


No player topped 100 fantasy points for the round, but nine players rose by $100,000. Eric Griffin topped the round with 99 fantasy points and a max price rise, while Cam Oliver had a massive 82 fantasy points in just one game to also lead the money-makers.


On the flipside, Lamar Patterson, Daniel Johnson and Andrew Bogut all dropped by the maximum after sub-par rounds, while Tai Wesley did the same as he continues to get his game legs back. Brandon Ashley’s price has also peaked so he could someone worth considering.


As you plan ahead for Round 13 and beyond, here are the best trade options to make sure you have a productive holiday week.


Eric Griffin, PF, ADE ($1.45m): With two more double rounds on tap and a price tag much lower than other options, the Round 12 leading scorer should be in most teams right now. The Sixers didn’t have much success this past round, but Griffin has embraced his reserve role and is thriving there with two more solid outings including 62 fantasy points in the Sixers’ loss in Cairns. Griffin is averaging 53.4 fp over his past five games, so give yourself a holiday grifft … see what I did there?


Jerome Randle, PG, ADE ($1.41m): We saw how hot Randle was in Round 11 and this past week was more of the same as he led all point guards in total fantasy points for the round. That includes the likes of John Roberson and Casper Ware on doubles too. Randle’s 91 fp came from averages of 22.5 points, 6.5 assists, 1 steal and 3 triples per game for the round and there’s no reason to think he’s going to slow down now.


Will Magnay, C, BNE ($0.874m): Magnay’s owners got an early holiday gift as he erupted for a career night with 23 points, 14 rebounds 2 blocks and even 3 triples as the Bullets stunned the Kings. Magnay led the way with his 76 fantasy points – easily a career high. It’s tough to know whether this was a true breakout game or a bit of a fluke, but Magnay has been threatening this for a while and it looks like it all came together for him. He won’t score like that going forward, but he can easily outperform his price and make some money, especially if he keeps starting. With Brisbane having two straight doubles, it’s the right time to see what he’s got.



Lamar Patterson, SG/SF, BNE ($1.60m): Patterson struggled to stay on the floor against the Kings, plagued by foul trouble, so don’t read too much into his low score. The upside is his price dropped, meaning if you wanted to bring him in for Brisbane’s two doubles, he’s $100k cheaper for you. It’s tough to see Patterson having another down week, so he’s one of the better trade-in options at SG or SF this week.


Cam Oliver, PF/C, CNS ($1.72m): The highest single game score of the round belonged to Oliver with 82 fantasy points. He continues to dominate week in and week out, averaging 73.3 fp over his past 3 games. The Snakes have a double this week and in Round 15, before four straight singles, so this may be your last chance to deploy him.


Emmett Naar, PG, ILL ($0.622m): Another great week from Naar in the absence of LaMelo Ball as he poured in 78 fantasy points across the Hawks’ double round. With Ball likely out a few more weeks, there’s no reason to think Naar will slow down and the Hawks have doubles through Round 15. Bring him in? Naar Yeah.


AJ Ogilvy, C, ILL ($1.62m): Like Naar, Ogilvy has benefited from an increased role and higher usage with Josh Boone out. The veteran big man had 98 total fantasy points in Round 12 – second tops in the league – and is now averaging 44 fp over his past 5 games. He’s been really consistent of late and you have to think that’ll keep going for the immediate future.


Todd Blanchfield, SF, ILL ($0.972m): It’s been a frustrating season for Blanchfield as he’s struggled to find consistent production with a lot of player movement around him. However, there has been a glimmer of hope as the Hawks continue to deploy a youth movement. How does that help Blanchfield I hear you ask? He is the steadying force for this team when the young guys need a bucket, some extra spacing, or someone to run the lanes with them. Blanchfield did that well in Round 12 with 37 fantasy points in each of their two games and got hot against the Breakers with a team-high 19 points on an efficient 6-9 from the field. Maybe with less pressure on the team, he’ll play freer and continue to thrive.


Sek Henry, SG, NZB ($1.23m): If you were wondering when we were going to see the Israeli league MVP, then the wait is over as Sek Henry has finally found his groove in the NBL. Over his past 7 games, he’s averaging 18 points, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 3.3 triples. That all equates to 37.3 fantasy points per game, which is great production at his current price. The Breakers have a healthy upcoming schedule and Corey Webster is gone, so there is no reason for Henry to slow down now.


Scotty Hopson, SF, NZB ($1.23m): Boy did the Breakers miss a healthy Scotty Hopson. In games where he’s scored 20 or more points this season, the Breakers are 3-1 and they’ve also won 3 of their past 4 games since Hopson returned from his knee injury. He went for 24 points against the Phoenix on Friday and backed that up with 21 points and the game winner against Illawarra on Sunday (92 fp total). There aren’t many better scorers in the league right now and with doubles in four of the next six rounds, you’d best be sure to have Hopson tucked safely under your Xmas tree this week.


 Others to consider:


Angus Glover, PG/SG, ILL ($0.590m): His comeback story from three ACL ruptures is well known, but it is not yet complete. Glover, however has certainly written some interesting chapters of late with a chance to play meaningful minutes for the first time as a pro. He’s not disappointed, averaging 26.8 fantasy points over his past 4 games. If you need a cheaper option on your bench, Glover is well worth a look right now.


Xavier Cooks, PF, SYD ($0.628m): In just his third game, Cooks made a big impact with 9 points, 9 rebounds (4 o-rebs), 3 assists and 3 blocks; a whopping 54 fantasy points in just 20 minutes of court time. It’s only a matter of time before he’s playing a larger role and these sorts of lines will be commonplace. Watch this space.



Captain’s Choice


For Round 13, there are too many choices with every team on a double. Alas, to help you narrow it down, my top three choices for Captain are:


Cam Oliver, PF/C, CNS


Mitch Creek, SG/SF, SEM


Shawn Long, PF/C, MEL


Oliver has feasted on Melbourne United so far this season and also thrived against the Phoenix, so he’s my top choice this week. It’s also tough to go past Creek and Long right now, so choosing one of them should guarantee your fantasy stocking gets stuffed full of points this week.


Don’t forget the round starts on Boxing Day under the open skies of Melbourne and goes all the way through to New Year’s Day, so make sure you get your trades done early and set your Captain.


Wishing everyone a very Merry Xmas, Happy Hanukkah and a wonderful New Year ahead!



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