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Bulk Nutrients NBL Fantasy Fix | Round 14

Written for nbl.com.au by Tom Hersz

 

Panic stations are never where we want to be.

Sometimes it feels like everything is going against you and there’s no clear remedy to turn things around.

The Perth Wildcats may have felt a little like that after their loss to South East Melbourne on Saturday. It was their third straight loss – something that hadn’t happened in over three years with Bryce Cotton in the line-up.  

Yet there they were, three straight and four of their last five games with a tough game in Tasmania looming. To make matters worse, they were to be without Mitch Norton and Vic Law was not 100% healthy.

But the Wildcats never panicked. Even after trailing early, they knuckled down defensively, exploited their matchup advantages and slowly went about executing a much needed win. 

If your NBL Fantasy season isn’t going as you’d hoped, you may also feel a little panicked at times. There’s usually no quick fix, but it’s probably not as bad as it seems. Some subtle moves and playing the schedule and matchups could be all you need to get a win or shoot up the ranking this week. 

And as always, your weekly Bulk Nutrients NBL Fantasy Fix is here to assist.

 

Round 14 (Mar 4 – Mar 7)

 

2 Games: Adelaide, Brisbane, New Zealand, S.E. Melbourne 

1 Game: Cairns, Illawarra, Melbourne, Perth, Tasmania, Sydney

 

A slightly smaller fixture this week with 7 games, but still plenty of action.

Adelaide and Brisbane have another double each, as the Breakers and Phoenix also join in on the fun. The Breakers have another double in Round 15, while Adelaide and South East Melbourne do in the recently released Round 16 schedule.

The Hawks have two straight singles now, ending their run of six doubles in seven rounds, while Cairns’ run of three straight doubles is also over, but they have one more coming up in Round 15.

Need to work out your fantasy bank balance? Let’s check out the top 10 price risers and price fallers after Round 13;

 

Risers

  1. Jaylen Adams: +$100,000 ($1.64m)
  2. Lamar Patterson: +$100,000 ($1.37m)
  3. Daniel Johnson: +$100,000 ($1.34m)
  4. Xavier Rathan-Mays: +$100,000 ($1.02m)
  5. Kyrin Galloway: +$100,000 ($0.470m)
  6. Sunday Dech: +$79,000 ($0.872m)
  7. Duop Reath: +$73,000 ($1.40m)
  8. Kyle Adnam: +$71,000 ($0.821m)
  9. Ariel Hukporti: +$69,000 ($0.790m)
  10. Mitch McCarron: +$65,000 ($1.34m)
  11. Shea Ili: +$65,000 ($0.968m)

 

Fallers

  1. Nathan Sobey: -$100,000 ($1.15m)
  2. Michael Frazier: -$100,000 ($0.926m)
  3. Isaiah Moss: -$100,000 ($0.500m)
  4. Cameron Bairstow: -$94,000 ($1.44m)
  5. Jarell Martin: -$86,000 ($1.52m)
  6. Majok Deng: -$80,000 ($1.05m)
  7. Dane Pineau: -$68,000 ($0.449m)
  8. Zhou Qi: -$65,000 ($1.10m)
  9. AJ Ogilvy: -$65,000 ($0.330m)
  10. Jordan Ngatai: -$61,000 ($0.343m)

 

With Jo Lual-Acuil and Yanni Wetzell unavailable this past round, Jaylen Adams headlined the price risers for Round 13. He was joined by Lamar Patterson, Daniel Johnson, Xavier Rathan-Mays and Kyrin Galloway as the only players to rise by the maximum $100k this week.

None of those players set the world on fire in Round 13, but they were all solid. Adams only played the one game for 59 fp, but that was one of the biggest single game scores for the round.

Rounding out the top ten money makers this week were Sunday Dech, Duop Reath, Kyle Adnam, Ariel Hukporti and then former teammates Mitch McCarron and Shea Ili tied for tenth place.

Vic Law led the round in scoring with 111 total fantasy points, but his value rose by less than $50k. In fact, similar can be said for most of the top scorers in Round 13, with Duop Reath the only player who was both a top-ten scorer (76 fp) and a top-ten money maker.

Lual-Acuil remains the most expensive player in the game at $1.74m, ahead of Xavier Cooks ($1.67m), Jaylen Adams ($1.64m) and Bryce Cotton ($1.62m). Yanni Wetzell ($1.58m), Jarrell Martin ($1.52m) and Vic Law ($1.50m) are the other players with a $1.5 million-plus price tag.

On the flipside, Nathan Sobey, Michael Frazier and Isaiah Moss all dropped by the maximum $100k this week. Sobey was on a minutes restriction, while Michael Frazier and Isaiah Moss are just not scoring well enough to hold their value.

Cam Bairstow, Jarell Martin and Majok Deng also lost north of $80k in value, while Dane Pineau, Zhou Qi, AJ Ogilvy and Jordan Ngatai rounded out the top 10 price fallers’ list.

Now that your wallet is full, let’s check out the best trade targets for Round 14.

 

Sunday Dech, SG/SF, ADL ($0.872m): If you need a cheaper option to free up some cash for an upgrade elsewhere, you could do worse than Dech. He’s been really solid AND consistent lately scoring 30 or more fantasy points in each of his last four games. His price keeps rising too and with another double on the schedule this round and one more in Round 16, it’s a great time to make Sunday your favourite day this week.

 

 

Daniel Johnson, PF/C, ADL ($1.34m): Just quickly as DJ is no stranger to the Fix. He keeps producing, he keeps making money and he has a double this week. Easy selection if you don’t have him already.

 

Mitch McCarron, PG, ADL ($1.34m): He’s still not scoring many points, but he’s certainly still racking up the fantasy points. McCarron continues to fill the box score every game whether he’s making field goals or not. This past round he averaged 5.5 points, 7.5 rebounds (2 o-rebs), 5.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game on his way to 87 total fantasy points. With Sobey still ramping up, Munford having his struggles and Peyton Siva also still up and down, Mitch may be the best PG option this week from those teams who have doubles. He’s still living up to his old nickname and making you money too, so give him a look.

 

Robert Franks, PF/C, BNE ($1.35m) and Lamar Patterson, SF, BNE ($1.37m): Solid, but not spectacular. Franks was pretty bad against Cairns but pretty great in their win versus Tasmania. Patterson was very much the same, so overall for the round, both were solid. Still, these two are the best fantasy scorers right now in Brisbane over the last few weeks. With Nathan Sobey still ramping up, they’re also the safest options. That could change if Sobes comes off any restrictions this week, but for now, with the last Brisbane double on tap, stick with what you know.

 

 

Matthew Dellavedova, PG, MEL ($1.15m): This may be more of a watchpoint, but Delly has quietly been very productive of late. If you take out a quiet game in the latest Throwdown match up in Round 12, Delly has averaged 39.7 fp in his three games since Round 11. He’s averaged over 6 assists in that span as well as 1.3 steals and 1.7 made threes. United have a double in Round 15, which gives him some appeal, but it really depends on your other options at PG.

 

Hugo Besson, SG, NZB ($0.830m): We’ve seen the talent from this young man. It’s tantalising. And if you remind yourself that he’s just 20 years old, then you’ll forgive him for not displaying that talent week in and week out. But boy, when he does, it’s special. And now that we’re halfway through the season, he’s doing it more and more often. Besson has averaged 17 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4 assists, 4.3 made FTs and 1.3 made threes over his last three games. He’s not shot a great clip, but he has the confidence to take a high volume of shots and he’s having a lot of fun in the process. Besson has also averaged 33.7 fp over that span which is solid, so if you need a cheaper shooting guard, with two straight doubles, Besson could be your guy.

 

Peyton Siva, PG, NZB ($1.17m): It took a while, but Peyton Siva is playing like Peyton Siva again. Always a high impact point guard in Europe since finishing his College career, it was a slow start to his NBL career. But that has all changed and over his last 7 games, he’s averaged 16 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.7 steals and 3.1 made threes. Those are some impressive numbers and while the Breakers are still not winning consistently, they are playing a lot better for the most part. Two doubles. Great form. What’s not to like?

 

 

Yanni Wetzell, C, NZB ($1.58m): It’s Yanni and they have two doubles. If you have the cash and he’s cleared to play, you bring him in.

 

Ryan Broekhoff, SG/SF, SEM ($1.29m): Whether it’s scoring, getting on the boards or getting in the passing lanes, Rowdy is making an impact every game lately and it’s translating to fantasy value. He’s averaging 44.3 fp over his last six games and has just one sub-40 fp game in that span. The Phoenix have a double this round and again in Round 16. ‘Nuff said.

 

Jaylen Adams, PG, SYD ($1.64m): He’s the hottest player in the league right now and deserves a mention. The Kings don’t have a double coming up, so you’d be hard pressed spending that money for singles. If you did, you’d get someone who’s averaged 28.5 points, 9 assists, 2.5 steals and 4 made threes, plus 74.5 fp over his last two games and helped the Kings win five in a row and seven of their last eight games. Straight fire.

 

 

Others to consider:

 

Scott Machado, PG, CNS ($0.806m): If you think Machado isn’t quite 100% yet, you may be right, but he is certainly rounding into form. His creativity is back and is translating to assists. His shooting hasn’t quite found its range yet, but there are signs. His influence though, is definitely evident as the Snakes have been playing better basketball at times in recent weeks. They have doubles in Rounds 15 and 16, so Machado ramping up is coming at the perfect time.

 

Kyle Adnam, PG, SEM ($0.821m): Call it an anomaly if you like, but I prefer to see it as a talented player finally having his legs back after missing two weeks of basketball last month. Whatever it was, Adnam was electric in his team’s win over Perth on Saturday. He had 24 points and 6 assists, making 7-14 from the field, 4-9 from deep and 6-6 from the charity stripe. His 47 fp was a season-high and it comes just as they have another double this week.

 

Captain’s Choice

It’s a tough week for Captains this week as our usual favourites are not options without doubles.

As we did last week, let’s check out the teams we can choose from. Adelaide gives us Cam Bairstow, Daniel Johnson or Mitch McCarron. From Brisbane it’s Robert Franks or Lamar Patterson. The Breakers have Peyton Siva or Yanni Wetzell if healthy. While the Phoenix list probably starts and ends with Mitch Creek unless you’re brave enough to Captain Broekhoff or hope Zhou Qi busts out again.

As I often preach, when in doubt, play it conservative and stick with what you know. 

So, with that said, here are my top three Captain choices for Round 14:

 

Robert Franks, PF/C, BNE

Yanni Wetzell, C, NZB

Mitch Creek, SF/PF, SEM

 

They all have their question marks. Franks has been inconsistent of late, Yanni missed last round with back spasms and was not good in his last game, while Creek hasn’t always delivered at a high level in every game.

But I have to rank them and so it would be Franks first, Wetzell second (if healthy) and Creek third from that bunch.

Make sure you check on Yanni’s status before you lock anything in this week.

If things haven’t been going your way, don’t panic. Just make some subtle but smart moves from the list above and things will turn around faster than you think.

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